How did Caleb Williams and the 2025 Bears break win probability?

What does it mean to “break” win probability, and how did the Bears consistently create that effect throughout the 2025 NFL season?

In 2025, the Chicago Bears recorded seven comeback wins within the final two minutes of game time. They became known as the “Cardiac Bears,” a team that defied the odds even when their win probability dipped as low as 4%.

However, looking at the season in its entirety, a clear pattern emerges. These weren't controlled comebacks built on steady execution; they were high-stakes gambles where their success was defined by their ability to survive in volatile environments.

To understand what shaped these fourth-quarter outcomes, this analysis focuses on win probability added (WPA), a metric that captures how each play shifts a team's chances of winning, both positively and negatively.

How does the fourth quarter change game dynamics?

In the NFL, the fourth quarter operates in a different domain than the rest of the game. Time is compressed, possessions are limited, and the cost of failure sharply increases.

The Bears didn't just play in this environment; they found a way to live in it. In 2025, their average absolute WPA per possession in the fourth quarter was 13.97%, well above the league average of 8.57%, reflecting the magnitude of win probability swings on each possession. Despite that volatility, they also produced results, averaging a net WPA of 6.42% per possession, ranking 2nd in execution and consistently turning those swings in their favor.

On a smaller scale, each play carried more weight. The average absolute WPA per play rose from 2.4% in the first three quarters to 3.7% in the fourth, and climbed to 4.66% in close games, where a single snap could define the outcome. The range of outcomes expanded as well, with the standard deviation increasing from 2.54% early in the game to 6.19% in the fourth quarter.

For the Bears, this was akin to high-stakes gambling. Each play in the fourth quarter carried a disproportionate impact and a single possession could drastically swing win probability.

What separates a successful comeback from a failed recovery?

The separation between a successful comeback and a failed recovery came down to a specific fourth quarter sequence: pressure disrupted the initial play, forcing the offense into a “broken state,” creation determined whether the drive survived, and execution converted that survival into meaningful outcomes.

In successful comebacks, Williams used his legs to rescue drives that should have ended, turning disruption into opportunity in the most critical moments. Against the Raiders, he escaped for a 12-yard scramble (+6.7% WPA) and followed with a 17-yard completion to sustain the game-winning drive. In the final minute against the Bengals, a third-and-long scramble prevented a drive-ending play and led to a 58-yard touchdown that swung win probability by over 50%.

In failed recoveries, that creation never materialized. Against the Vikings in Week 1, late-game pressure led to a sack and consecutive incompletions, while against the Ravens, a fourth-quarter interception (-11.8% WPA) flipped the game.

The distinction came down to survival at the point of disruption. When Williams created in those moments, the drive lived and execution followed. When he didn't, the possession ended there.

Ultimately, 13 of the Bears' 20 games were decided late; they won seven and lost six.

Disruption, Creation, and Execution

The NFL's “ABSOLUTE CINEMA IN CHICAGO” YouTube feature captures this dynamic perfectly during the Bears' Wild Card matchup against the Packers.

With 5:37 remaining and facing 4th-and-8, the play quickly broke down. Caleb rolled left to escape a looping pass rusher, reset on the run, and threw across his body to Rome Odunze for a 27-yard conversion. While the play added 7.8% to their win probability, its true value was in the fact that it prevented the drive from ending.

Once that broken rep was recovered, the offense returned to executing within the structure of Ben Johnson's system. A touchdown to Olamide Zaccheaus and a two-point conversion brought the Bears within three. After a defensive stop, the offense operated in perfect rhythm with a 12-yard pass to Loveland (+8.2% WPA) followed by a 23-yard gain by D'Andre Swift (+15.5% WPA).

This sequence set up the dagger: a perfectly executed screen-and-go to DJ Moore for a 25-yard touchdown to put the Bears ahead (+18.5% WPA). The play followed a “call it, show it, break it” philosophy, using an earlier screen to Luther Burden as bait to manipulate the defense. But that design only mattered because Caleb Williams saved a 4th-and-8 that should have failed.

In the end, the Bears swung win probability by over 70% in under four minutes.

Tying it all together:

The Bears didn't break win probability through a single edge, but through a volatile environment that enabled fourth-quarter comebacks. Within that environment, creation during disruption laid the foundation for execution that mattered most in high-leverage moments.

This created a system that was both powerful and fragile. It enabled a miraculous comeback in the Wild Card game against the Packers, but also led to a devastating collapse in the Divisional round against the Rams.

Fourth-quarter football isn't just about perfect execution, but about survival through broken plays long enough for execution to matter. In that environment, the most valuable play isn't the one that wins the game; it's the one that prevents it from ending.

Data collected from nflreadr / nflfastR